Boris Johnson won the December 2019 UK general election on the promise that he had an “oven-ready deal” to “get Brexit done.” But while the UK did leave the EU in January 2020, Johnson’s deal included a deeply contentious protocol governing the special trade status of Northern Ireland. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s successful negotiation […]
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British democracy was once widely seen as a model for others to follow. But it has now sunk into its deepest crisis in living memory. At stake is not only whether the UK crashes out of the EU without an exit deal, but also how far a country once famed for stability and moderation descends […]
Yesterday’s rejection of the UK’s EU exit deal was the biggest government defeat ever – on the most important piece of legislation of this parliamentary term and many previous ones. Yet Prime Minister Theresa May has not resigned. The government is almost certain to win this evening’s no-confidence vote tabled by Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. […]
Now that the UK government and the EU have finally agreed a Brexit deal, Theresa May must seek Parliament’s approval for it. The battle lines are already drawn. But these do not involve hardline Brexiteers facing off against unreconciled Remainers, or Conservatives against Labour. The big divide is between pragmatists who think that a bad […]
Far from prompting other countries to want to leave, the Brexit shambles is boosting support for the EU. Even far-right nationalists have concluded that EU exit is a dead end. But the EU faces a more insidious threat: that it will disintegrate from within, as nationalists first undermine then seek to take over EU institutions, as I […]
Read my contribution to The National Interest
Britain’s immigration system isn’t fit for purpose. Its political targets are perverse. Its guiding philosophy is reminiscent of Soviet-style central planning. The resulting rules are unworkably complex. Their administration by the Home Office mixes incompetence with malice. The upshot is heavy-handed controls that still leave voters feeling that things are out of control. That’s bad […]
Sometimes it takes a prime minister of Luxembourg to hit the nail on the head. “They [Britain] were in with a load of opt-outs. Now they are out, and want a load of opt-ins,” said Xavier Bettel. The problem for the UK is that the European Union is much less accommodating of its demands for […]
Britain still hasn’t decided what kind of post-Brexit trading relationship it wants with the EU. If the government insists on controlling EU migration, the Norway model is out. So what about remaining in a customs union with the EU? Contrary to what is often claimed, that would not avert the introduction of customs controls at […]
My latest for CapX
Listen to the podcast of LSE European Institute event with Sara Hobolt, John Rentoul and me. My initial remarks start after 26:30 minutes
My latest for Foreign Policy
My take on Theresa May’s Florence speech and the new round of negotiations that started today for CapX
that would involve staying in the single market and customs union for a few years after Brexit. My latest for CapX
The Brexit negotiations are at an impasse, notably over money. Some hotheads are suggesting that the UK should try to force the EU to back down by threatening a chaotic no-deal Brexit. But while a credible plan B would indeed strengthen the UK’s negotiating hand, a no-deal Brexit is no such thing. My latest for […]
I was interviewed by Project Syndicate for their podcast series
My column for CapX
My latest column for Foreign Policy
Theresa May is likely to win the UK’s snap election on 8 June. A big parliamentary majority and not having to face voters again until 2022 could give her more flexibility in negotiating and implementing Brexit. But contrary to what she claims, that wouldn’t strengthen her negotiating position vis-a-vis the EU; if anything, it would […]