Europe Must Stand with Canada Against Trump

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s widely acclaimed speech at Davos argued that middle powers must act together to avoid becoming victims of predatory superpowers, and he has lived by his words, duly standing with his European allies over Greenland, Ukraine and European defence. 

Yet now that Trump has launched a rapidly escalating trade war against Canada, European leaders have been conspicuously silent. They are making a big mistake. Solidarity must be a two-way street.

Rather than keeping their heads down, European leaders must recognise that they could be next. Like Canada, the EU is a middle power whose future prosperity and security will depend on standing with its partners.

The EU should muster the courage to offer Canada a much deeper economic, political, and strategic partnership, presenting itself as an attractive alternative to what Trump’s America has become. And remember that Canada could also eventually provide a valuable alternative to US supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and Chinese rare earths.

Read my latest column for Project Syndicate.

Belgium’s debt drift

Ernest Hemingway famously observed that debtors go bankrupt in two ways – gradually, then suddenly.

The good news is that, for now, Belgium is still going bust gradually. Government debt is high and creeping up, but the situation is not yet catastrophic.

The bad news is that amid economic stagnation, institutional gridlock and relentlessly rising spending demands due to demography, defence and debt interest, the country’s polarised political system seems unlikely to put public finances on a sustainable footing unless a crisis suddenly strikes.

Read my latest piece for Brussels Times

The ECB should not raise interest rates yet

Against a backdrop of acute uncertainty, weak growth, subdued wages, and elevated market interest rates, monetary tightening is warranted only when there is convincing evidence that higher inflation is becoming entrenched. No such evidence has yet materialized in Europe.

Read my latest column for Project Syndicate

Ten years on from the Brexit referendum, is Trump pushing the UK back into the arms of the EU?

Relations have certainly improved, as has security cooperation. But progress on economic cooperation remains meagre.

Practical and political hurdles include:

  • the EU is broadly satisfied with its existing trade deal with the UK, and has more pressing priorities than trying to deepen their economic ties;
  • the EU is reluctant to give the UK special treatment (“no cherry picking”), though it is being more flexible in a few areas;
  • the UK remains hemmed in by Labour’s election-manifesto red lines: no return to the single market, customs union or freedom of movement;
  • the UK still wants to have its cake and eat it, eg, participate in parts of the single market without making EU budget contributions;
  • even now, the UK is reluctant to choose the EU over the US.

What might break this deadlock?

A pro-EU shift in the UK. Starmer’s weakness is pushing him towards closer alignment with the single market, while his leadership rivals favour a customs union with the EU.

But given Labour’s red lines, any big shift would likely come only in its next manifesto – and only be implemented if Labour wins the next election, which must be held by 2029.

The EU’s position may also evolve. Fast-tracking Ukraine’s entry by offering it a form of associate membership sets a precedent that could be applied elsewhere. In the wake of Trump’s rupture of the global order and Western alliance, the EU is looking at ways to cooperate more closely with allies such as Canada, which could prompt fresh thinking about institutional flexibility.

The biggest catalyst for change could be an even greater sense of common threat – eg, if Trump quits NATO.

But so far there hasn’t been a strategic discussion on the underlying issue of how to protect liberal democracy from the forces trying to destroy it, and how the EU-UK relationship fits into that. 

It would make sense for the UK to rejoin the EU but sadly that still seems a distant prospect.

Read my latest piece for the Brussels Times.

Trump’s tariff setback – and what it means for Europe

Donald Trump likes to call himself “Tariff Man” and even “king”. But on 20 February, the US Supreme Court ruled that his use of particular emergency powers to “unilaterally impose tariffs of unlimited amount, duration and scope” on all and sundry was illegal.

That setback throws much of Trump’s trade strategy into chaos, deprives him of his favourite form of geopolitical leverage and constrains his freedom of action going forward. He is not, after all, an absolute monarch when it comes to commerce.

The justices’ ruling also casts doubt on the many trade agreements that are premised on Trump’s unilateral tariffs – not least his one-sided deal with the EU that was struck at his Turnberry golf course in Scotland last August.

But while the Supreme Court’s willingness to stand up to Trump is good news – not least for Americans worried about their country’s accelerated slide into authoritarianism – it does not prevent Trump achieving his protectionist aims by other means. Indeed, if it prompts Trump to lash out and other countries to retaliate, it might even end up making matters worse.

Read my article for Brussels Times.

How to revitalise Europe’s economy

EU leaders have just gathered for yet another discussion on how to make Europe’s economy more “competitive”. That’s the wrong target; the aim should be to make the EU more dynamic.

While the EU has suffered big external shocks in recent years – Russian energy, US tariffs, Chinese competition – the core problem is its corporatist economic model, which favours established companies in mature industries over innovative startups in growth sectors like tech.

While many things need to change, at EU level there are 3 big levers for economic reform: deeper integration in the EU’s incomplete single market; lighter-touch regulation for smaller companies and innovative sectors; and increased investment, not least in venture capital.

Read my latest column for Brussels Times.

The new gold rush

The price of gold has plunged over the past week, but is still up more than 10% this year and has nearly doubled since the start of 2025.

Is it just a bubble? Or are there sound reasons for gold’s safe-haven appeal?

Clearly, speculation is part of the story. FOMO has amplified fear of geopolitical & financial turmoil.

But in a time of war and Western sanctions, geopolitical upheaval & loss of trust in the dollar, gold is also a valuable form of insurance that has stood the test of time.

And it can also offer a decent return. Ignoring the past year’s exuberance, gold appreciated by an average of 9% a year between Jan 2000 & Jan 2025.

The caveat: if gold becomes a more mainstream financial asset, it may lose some of its safe-haven properties.

Read my latest column for The Brussels Times

Europe needs independence from Trump’s America

The storm over Greenland may have abated for now, but Europe’s relations with Donald Trump remain grim.

Europeans need to face facts: they cannot rely on the mercurial US president to protect them from Russia; indeed, he too poses a threat.

Now, then, is the time to accelerate plans to reduce Europe’s military, economic and technological dependence on Trump’s America and to build new partnerships with like-minded powers.

Read my latest Brussels Times column.

Europe braces as Trump targets Greenland

When in 2019 Donald Trump first suggested that the US acquire Greenland, Europeans dismissed the idea as a bad joke. But they’re not laughing now.

My latest column for Brussels Times explains why Trump wants Greenland, how he might gain control of it, and what that would mean – not just for Greenland and Denmark, but also for Ukraine and the rest of Europe.

It concludes that in a world governed by force, Europe needs to be able to defend itself – not by 2035, but now.

Europe must stand with Ukraine, or they will fall together

EU leaders are quick to tweet that they ‘stand with Ukraine’. But talk is cheap. Unless they are willing to follow words with action, Putin will rightly conclude that they are all mouth and no trousers.

There is a compelling case for using Russia’s frozen assets. But the overriding priority is to sustain Ukraine come what may. If all else fails, the EU should simply borrow the money. That is what the Commission is proposing as a stopgap measure, and it could also be a viable longer-term solution.

Read my latest column for The Brussels Times

Why the EU isn’t a superpower yet

Trump and Putin negotiating Ukraine’s future without consulting Europeans; the EU capitulating to Trump on trade; European factories choked by China’s rare-earth curbs:

Now that global decisions are increasingly dictated by hard-power realities not technocratic rules, the once-mighty EU suddenly seems like a paper tiger.

Read my latest column for Brussels Times, which analyses the EU’s four big vulnerabilities and sets out what it needs to do to become a superpower.

Europe needs to rearm much faster

Later this month, NATO is set to agree targets for higher defence spending, by an as-yet-unconfirmed future date.

But Europe needs to rearm massively, right now. The threat from Putin is imminent, as is the risk that Trump abandons Europe, or betrays it by siding with Putin.

While this will eventually require tax rises and/or spending cuts, the best way to fund such a big emergency boost to defence spending is by borrowing more for a few years, preferably collectively. This could involve a coalition of willing governments, both EU and non-EU.

Done right, this could also help streamline military procurement, better integrate Europe’s fighting forces and even provide a much-needed lift to Europe’s struggling economies.

My latest Substack essay explains how best to do this.

Time for EU bonds to shine

As Trump’s destructive chaos leads global investors to desperately search for safe alternatives to US Treasury bonds, the EU has been given an unprecedented opportunity.

In addition to satisfying investor demand, a large issuance of common EU bonds would strengthen Europe’s economy, security, and policymaking autonomy.

Read my latest column for Project Syndicate