What if Australia’s housing bubble bursts?

House prices in Australia have soared over the past decade: they are now two-and-a-half times what they were in 2000.

While prices dipped a little at the height of the global financial crisis, they have since resumed their onward rise.

In fact, they rose a whopping 20% in the 12 months to the end of the first quarter.

And according to The Economist, “Australian property is the most overvalued” of any of the 20 countries they track, because the ratio of house prices to rents is well above its long-term average.

With the Reserve Bank of Australia raising interest rates to cool the market, might the bubble burst?

If so, the Lucky Country, which has so far sailed through the crisis virtually unscathed, may be in for tougher times ahead.

Fortunately, it exports a lot to China’s booming economy – and it may need to rely even more on that in future if domestic demand takes a knock.

As I explain in my new book, Aftershock: Reshaping the World Economy After the Crisis, which has just been published in Australia, perhaps Australians should be less hostile to Chinese investment in the country.

They may soon really need it.

Australia abandons plans to curb carbon emissions

Leadership? What leadership?

Kevin Rudd made tackling climate change the centerpiece of his winning election campaign in 2007. Once in government, he announced plans to introduce a carbon emissions trading scheme in Australia in 2011 with the aim of cutting emissions by at least 5 per cent by 2020 (from 2000 levels). But these were stymied when the country’s Senate rejected them in August 2009. The opposition Liberals later ditched their leader, Malcolm Turnbull, who supported the scheme, in favour of Tony Abbott, a diehard opponent of it.

In my new book, Aftershock, I said:

The prime minister’s intent is sincere, though; analysts speculate that he may call an election if he can’t get the plans approved.

It now looks like that assessment was incorrect.

On 27 April, Rudd backtracked, saying that he would do nothing until 2012 at the earliest. He blamed the opposition’s “backflip” and said Australia should wait to see how global efforts to curb climate change pan out.

Yet only last November, in a speech to the Lowy Institute, he dismissed as parochial and “absolute political cowardice” the notion that Australia should not act until others do. Citing government figures, he warned that a delay would end up costing Australia 15% more to adapt to climate change later.

A Lowy poll this week found that 72% thought Australia should act to reduce carbon emissions before a global deal is reached.

Even so, with an election looming, Rudd has opted for cowardice.

Mass murder in Australia

Australia_fires_01_483004h
 
(Andrew Brownbill/EPA)

The Australian Prime Minister accused arsonists of “mass murder” today as the
death toll from savage bushfires sweeping parts of the country reached 131.

What on earth motivates people to start fires like that? It's horrific.

Justice finally prevails in Australia

A German doctor whose family was twice denied permanent residency in
Australia because of his son’s Down syndrome has been allowed to stay
after the immigration minister intervened on his behalf.

Dr.
Bernhard Moeller moved to Australia with his wife and three children
nearly three years ago when he was hired to work as a specialist at a
rural hospital in the southern state of Victoria.

The family
decided to apply for permanent residency, but were appalled when their
application was rejected this month because Dr. Moeller’s 13-year-old
son, Lukas, has Down syndrome.

Australia has a longstanding
policy of weighing medical conditions in its residency decisions. Any
applicant deemed to have a condition that would incur significant costs
to the state-run health care system must be rejected under Australia’s
immigration laws.

The Moellers appealed the ruling to the
Migration Review Tribunal, the immigration department’s appellate
court, but it upheld the decision. As a final resort, the family took
the case to the federal immigration minister, Sen. Chris Evans.

Do you think the Moellers would have been allowed to stay if John Howard was still in power?

Full story in the NYT

      

Sanctuary Refugee Foundation

One of the privileges of speaking about global migration issues is that I have come into contact with exceptional people who devote their lives to helping the less fortunate.

Sue and Peter Hallam set up the Sanctuary Refugee Foundation in 1988 after what they describe as ‘a life-changing experience’ in Mexico, where they spent time with a priest who was sheltering destitute Salvadoran refugees. After returning from Mexico, and working with refugees in Canada, the Hallams and their three sons migrated to Australia in November 1987, settling in Coffs Harbour on the north coast of New South Wales.

The Sanctuary Refugee Foundation sponsors and assists refugees who are
in desperate situations overseas. Over the last 20 years they
have helped thousands of refugees from many war-torn countries, including
Chile, El Salvador, Vietnam, Iraq, Burma, Bosnia and Southern Sudan. On
arrival, refugees are assisted with accommodation, furniture,
food, clothing and are generally welcomed into the community.

If you want to make a donation, click here.

Hurrah!

I don’t have anything particularly insightful or sophisticated to say about the results of Australia’s election. I just want to celebrate John Howard’s defeat.

What fantastic news!

Let’s hope Labor delivers a fairer and more humane immigration policy that restores Australia’s tattered reputation and heals the wounds to the country’s vibrant multicultural society.

Letting in unskilled workers is not ‘un-Australian’

Australia’s Herald Sun reports that:

A British migration expert said yesterday Australia should open its
borders to unskilled rather than skilled Asian migrants to do the
dirty, difficult and dangerous jobs locals shunned.

Philippe Legrain, a visiting fellow at the London School of
Economics’ European Institute, also accused the Government of racism
over its approach to African refugees.

"I think it’s the most crude, electioneering racism," he said.

A spokeswoman for Mr Andrews said opening the borders to unskilled migrants would be catastrophic.

"The idea of bringing in people to do low-skilled, low-paid jobs is, frankly, un-Australian," she said.

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Life Matters

I was a guest on ABC Radio National’s Life Matters on 5 July, talking about opening borders. I was severely jetlagged, but hopefully not completely incoherent. Listen to it here

The Elephant and the Dragon

I’m just back from the Adelaide Festival of Ideas, which was great. The 24-hour flight and 8 1/2-hour time difference are still killers though. I participated in a discussion about the future of India and China on my first evening at the festival, which was rebroadcast on ABC’s programme The National Interest. I also gave a talk about my book, and participated in a panel discussion called People without Borders.

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Adelaide Festival of Ideas

I’m delighted to be speaking at the Adelaide Festival of Ideas next week. I’m talking at three events on Thursday 5 July and Friday 6 July. For more details, see the schedule. I’m also due to be interviewed on ABC Radio National’s Life Matters show on Thursday 5 at 8:45am Adelaide time, or 9:15am Sydney time. I’m really looking forward to it.

Human cargo

Australia’s treatment of asylum seekers has long been shockingly inhumane. But prime minister John Howard’s latest policy twist is truly despicable: he plans to "swap" would-be refugees held in the country’s illegal offshore detention centres with Cuban and Haitian detainees the US is holding in Guantanamo Bay. People are to be treated as chattel, shipped off half-way across the world at the whim of a desperately unpopular politician who will seemingly go to any lengths to bolster his chances of re-election later this year. The first asylum seekers to be exchanged are likely to be the 83 Sri Lankans and eight Burmese held on the Pacific island of Nauru, according to the BBC.

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