Brussels Times

Belgium’s debt drift

Ernest Hemingway famously observed that debtors go bankrupt in two ways – gradually, then suddenly.

The good news is that, for now, Belgium is still going bust gradually. Government debt is high and creeping up, but the situation is not yet catastrophic.

The bad news is that amid economic stagnation, institutional gridlock and relentlessly rising spending demands due to demography, defence and debt interest, the country’s polarised political system seems unlikely to put public finances on a sustainable footing unless a crisis suddenly strikes.

Read my latest piece for Brussels Times

Ten years on from the Brexit referendum, is Trump pushing the UK back into the arms of the EU?

Relations have certainly improved, as has security cooperation. But progress on economic cooperation remains meagre.

Practical and political hurdles include:

  • the EU is broadly satisfied with its existing trade deal with the UK, and has more pressing priorities than trying to deepen their economic ties;
  • the EU is reluctant to give the UK special treatment (“no cherry picking”), though it is being more flexible in a few areas;
  • the UK remains hemmed in by Labour’s election-manifesto red lines: no return to the single market, customs union or freedom of movement;
  • the UK still wants to have its cake and eat it, eg, participate in parts of the single market without making EU budget contributions;
  • even now, the UK is reluctant to choose the EU over the US.

What might break this deadlock?

A pro-EU shift in the UK. Starmer’s weakness is pushing him towards closer alignment with the single market, while his leadership rivals favour a customs union with the EU.

But given Labour’s red lines, any big shift would likely come only in its next manifesto – and only be implemented if Labour wins the next election, which must be held by 2029.

The EU’s position may also evolve. Fast-tracking Ukraine’s entry by offering it a form of associate membership sets a precedent that could be applied elsewhere. In the wake of Trump’s rupture of the global order and Western alliance, the EU is looking at ways to cooperate more closely with allies such as Canada, which could prompt fresh thinking about institutional flexibility.

The biggest catalyst for change could be an even greater sense of common threat – eg, if Trump quits NATO.

But so far there hasn’t been a strategic discussion on the underlying issue of how to protect liberal democracy from the forces trying to destroy it, and how the EU-UK relationship fits into that. 

It would make sense for the UK to rejoin the EU but sadly that still seems a distant prospect.

Read my latest piece for the Brussels Times.

Trump’s tariff setback – and what it means for Europe

Donald Trump likes to call himself “Tariff Man” and even “king”. But on 20 February, the US Supreme Court ruled that his use of particular emergency powers to “unilaterally impose tariffs of unlimited amount, duration and scope” on all and sundry was illegal.

That setback throws much of Trump’s trade strategy into chaos, deprives him of his favourite form of geopolitical leverage and constrains his freedom of action going forward. He is not, after all, an absolute monarch when it comes to commerce.

The justices’ ruling also casts doubt on the many trade agreements that are premised on Trump’s unilateral tariffs – not least his one-sided deal with the EU that was struck at his Turnberry golf course in Scotland last August.

But while the Supreme Court’s willingness to stand up to Trump is good news – not least for Americans worried about their country’s accelerated slide into authoritarianism – it does not prevent Trump achieving his protectionist aims by other means. Indeed, if it prompts Trump to lash out and other countries to retaliate, it might even end up making matters worse.

Read my article for Brussels Times.

How to revitalise Europe’s economy

EU leaders have just gathered for yet another discussion on how to make Europe’s economy more “competitive”. That’s the wrong target; the aim should be to make the EU more dynamic.

While the EU has suffered big external shocks in recent years – Russian energy, US tariffs, Chinese competition – the core problem is its corporatist economic model, which favours established companies in mature industries over innovative startups in growth sectors like tech.

While many things need to change, at EU level there are 3 big levers for economic reform: deeper integration in the EU’s incomplete single market; lighter-touch regulation for smaller companies and innovative sectors; and increased investment, not least in venture capital.

Read my latest column for Brussels Times.

The new gold rush

The price of gold has plunged over the past week, but is still up more than 10% this year and has nearly doubled since the start of 2025.

Is it just a bubble? Or are there sound reasons for gold’s safe-haven appeal?

Clearly, speculation is part of the story. FOMO has amplified fear of geopolitical & financial turmoil.

But in a time of war and Western sanctions, geopolitical upheaval & loss of trust in the dollar, gold is also a valuable form of insurance that has stood the test of time.

And it can also offer a decent return. Ignoring the past year’s exuberance, gold appreciated by an average of 9% a year between Jan 2000 & Jan 2025.

The caveat: if gold becomes a more mainstream financial asset, it may lose some of its safe-haven properties.

Read my latest column for The Brussels Times

Europe needs independence from Trump’s America

The storm over Greenland may have abated for now, but Europe’s relations with Donald Trump remain grim.

Europeans need to face facts: they cannot rely on the mercurial US president to protect them from Russia; indeed, he too poses a threat.

Now, then, is the time to accelerate plans to reduce Europe’s military, economic and technological dependence on Trump’s America and to build new partnerships with like-minded powers.

Read my latest Brussels Times column.

Europe must stand with Ukraine, or they will fall together

EU leaders are quick to tweet that they ‘stand with Ukraine’. But talk is cheap. Unless they are willing to follow words with action, Putin will rightly conclude that they are all mouth and no trousers.

There is a compelling case for using Russia’s frozen assets. But the overriding priority is to sustain Ukraine come what may. If all else fails, the EU should simply borrow the money. That is what the Commission is proposing as a stopgap measure, and it could also be a viable longer-term solution.

Read my latest column for The Brussels Times

Why the EU isn’t a superpower yet

Trump and Putin negotiating Ukraine’s future without consulting Europeans; the EU capitulating to Trump on trade; European factories choked by China’s rare-earth curbs:

Now that global decisions are increasingly dictated by hard-power realities not technocratic rules, the once-mighty EU suddenly seems like a paper tiger.

Read my latest column for Brussels Times, which analyses the EU’s four big vulnerabilities and sets out what it needs to do to become a superpower.

How will societies change after the coronavirus?

How will society change after the coronavirus pandemic?

The adoption of digital technologies has advanced in leaps and bounds, but it is still implausible that this spells the end of the office or the demise of business travel, let alone the decline of cities, which may rather become younger and more liveable. Perhaps the biggest question mark is how politicians will respond to post-crisis demands for a fairer society.

Read my latest for Brussels Times.

A ‘corona bond’ would demonstrate that European solidarity exists

As Europe faces an unprecedented coronavirus crisis that is so far hitting Italy and Spain particularly hard and is straining the EU to breaking point, an exceptional “corona bond” would provide the fiscal firepower to support stricken businesses and workers and demonstrate European solidarity. If not now, when?

Read my latest for Brussels Times

My piece was quoted by Ishaan Tharoor in the Washington Post as follows:

The coronabonds, wrote economist Philippe Legrain, would “give the eurozone greater geopolitical reach and provide greater protection against President Donald Trump’s abuse of the dominance of the US dollar for harmful political ends.” It would also prove that “European solidarity exists,” according to Legrain.

Welcome to a new era of European democracy

With the next few months set to be dominated by unseemly haggling over top EU jobs, starting with the presidency of the European Commission, it may feel like business as usual in Brussels. But if you take the longer view, there are good reasons to hope that EU democracy may be evolving in a positive direction.

Read my column for Brussels Times

Is the eurozone heading for another recession?

Is the eurozone heading for recession? How will policymakers react if the slowdown does get worse? And what damage could an economic downturn do to Europe’s already fractious politics? Those pressing questions ought to be at the top of policymakers’ minds in the run-up to the European Parliament elections in May.

Read my latest column for the Brussels Times

The real EU disintegration threat isn’t Brexit

Far from prompting other countries to want to leave, the Brexit shambles is boosting support for the EU. Even far-right nationalists have concluded that EU exit is a dead end.

But the EU faces a more insidious threat: that it will disintegrate from within, as nationalists first undermine then seek to take over EU institutions, as I explain in my latest column for Brussels Times