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The European Union is increasingly caught between the United States and China. Until it finds a common strategic purpose, the bloc will struggle to advance its interests and is increasingly likely to fall victim to great-power plays. Read my latest column for Project Syndicate. Quoted in the FT Quoted in Belgium’s L’Echo Quoted by Voice […]

Posted 29 Apr 2019 in Blog
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I was interviewed about the G7 and trade on Al Jazeera English on 9 June. I discussed Donald Trump’s trade war with China on Al Jazeera English’s Inside Story on 16 June.

Posted 18 Jun 2018 in Blog
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Donald Trump thinks that because the US buys more from China than it sells in return, it would easily “win” a trade war. But China’s position is actually much stronger, both economically and politically, than that crude calculus suggests. My latest for Foreign Policy

Posted 14 Apr 2018 in Blog
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China is a rising economic power, the European Union a declining one. So Britain’s future is best served by hitching its wagon to Beijing rather than to Brussels. As last week’s high-profile visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping shows, Britain can prosper as a global trading power outside the EU. Not so fast. The EU […]

Posted 28 Oct 2015 in Blog
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I was interviewed by Liu JIn at the Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business (CKGSB) in Beijing on risks to the global economy, the eurozone and what all of it implies for China.

Posted 05 Jul 2014 in Blog
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The US and others seem to believe that China’s currency is the biggest obstacle to the global recovery. That is highly debatable, as I argued on VoxEU. In any case, the Chinese renminbi is up 3.1% against the dollar over the past 12 months. And since inflation is 4.4% in China and only 1.1% in […]

Posted 11 Nov 2010 in Blog
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VoxEU, 2 November 2010. While the debate over global imbalances often focuses on China, this column argues that the biggest threat to the world economy comes from the other side of the seesaw – the US.

Posted 03 Nov 2010 in Published articles
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Check out my new article on VoxEU.org.

Posted 02 Nov 2010 in Blog
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Twenty years ago, the main goal of many migrant workers in city factories was to send money home to struggling village families. Now they see the factory as part of a personal project, a first step towards an urban life. Internet access has made them more worldly and since a labour law passed in 2008 […]

Posted 09 Jul 2010 in Blog
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Interesting piece by Nayan Chanda

Posted 11 May 2010 in Blog
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Amid all the worries about cheap Chinese exports undercutting Western products and costing Americans and Europeans their jobs, people often forget that China’s explosive growth also creates huge new opportunities for Westerners. A decade ago, Chinese tourists were rare birds. Now, they are the world’s fourth-biggest spenders. They spent $43.7 billion last year, 21% more […]

Posted 30 Apr 2010 in Blog
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China’s latest trade figures show that its imports soared by 66% over the past 12 months, while exports grew by 24%. As a result, China recorded its first monthly trade deficit in 6 years. Contrary to those who accuse China of being a drag on the global economy, it is a leading engine of growth.

Posted 12 Apr 2010 in Blog
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The United States imported $2.7bn worth of the steel pipe used in oil and natural gas production in 2008, making it the highest-value US trade injury case on record. But because of slumping demand and US duties already imposed in the case, imports of the product from China fell last year to about $1.1bn. Now […]

Posted 12 Apr 2010 in Blog
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Excellent article by Avinash Persaud on Vox Highlights: The notion that the world was suffering from a savings glut, that would have pulled us all into recession were it not for America’s selfless consumption, is also as deficient in arithmetic as it is self-serving. You cannot save yourself into boom… But all it would take […]

Posted 12 Apr 2010 in Blog
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A truly excellent article. Excerpts On currency manipulation: The US treasury has been charged by Congress to assess whether China is a “currency manipulator”. Although President Barack Obama has now delayed for some months when the treasury secretary, Timothy Geithner, must issue his report, the very concept of “currency manipulation” itself is flawed: all governments […]

Posted 12 Apr 2010 in Blog
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Eight years after China’s WTO accession, many US industries complain that they face significant non-tariff barriers to trade… These barriers include, for example, regulations that set high thresholds for entry into service sectors such as banking, insurance and telecommunications . . . and the use of questionable sanitary and phytosanitary measures to control import volumes. Sounds a lot like […]

Posted 04 Apr 2010 in Blog
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China’s biggest private car maker, Geely, is not only taking Sweden’s Volvo off Ford’s hands. It is also buying Manganese Bronze, the company that makes London’s famous black cabs. Bad news? Hardly. With Geely’s help, Manganese Bronze is more likely to crack the huge Chinese market, now the world’s biggest.

Posted 29 Mar 2010 in Blog
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Private consumption is 7% up on pre-crisis levels in the 10 largest Asian economies (excluding stagnant Japan) http://bit.ly/9hxgPW

Posted 18 Mar 2010 in Blog
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In recent years, Western governments have voiced concerns about Asian governments’ vast sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) investing in Western companies. Some called this "investment protectionism" But as Western banks faced collapse, they were delighted to receive capital injections from Asian SWFs – and Western governments didn’t object. In a crisis, needs must. Now, though, Asia’s […]

Posted 05 Dec 2008 in Blog
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For years, the US has lectured China on how it should run its economy. Now, the tables are turned. US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson went to Beijing to urge the Chinese government not to let its currency weaken. The Chinese hit back in style. Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the Chinese central bank, urged the US […]

Posted 05 Dec 2008 in Blog