Could the coronavirus crisis be the end of globalisation?

Until recently, most policymakers and investors remained complacent about the potential economic impact of the coronavirus crisis.

Now they realise that it is generating a global shock, which may be sharp—but which most still expect to be short.

But what if the economic disruption has an enduring impact? Could the coronavirus pandemic even be the nail in the coffin for the current era of globalisation?

Read my latest column for Foreign Policy.

It is quoted by Marc Saxer in International Politics and Society.

The unbearable complacency of Angela Merkel

Germany’s economy is doing fine right now and it finally has a new government. So it’s perhaps understandable that it seems content to coast along. Why mess with an ostensibly winning formula? Steady-as-she-goes, business-as-usual Merkelism seems successful and safe.

Yet Germany is actually far more vulnerable than it seems. Europe’s export powerhouse has long been a free-rider on both the open markets and the nuclear security guarantee provided by the United States. Both of those are under threat from Angela Merkel’s ungracious host in Washington yesterday, Donald Trump. The crumbling of that liberal international order seems likely to make Germany even more reliant on the EU for its future prosperity and security.

Yet Merkel seems unwilling to make the short-term concessions needed to secure the longer-term stability and effectiveness of both the eurozone and the EU. This complacency is dangerously shortsighted — and a potentially historic tragedy for Europe. My latest for Foreign Policy.

Trump’s refugee and Muslim ban isn’t just morally wrong, it’s also bad for the economy

Refugees are a tiny proportion of the U.S. population — some 3.3 million have been admitted since 1975 — but they have had an outsized impact. Google co-founder Sergey Brin was a child refugee from the Soviet Union; Google’s parent company, Alphabet, is now America’s second-most valuable firm, with a market capitalization of $553 billion. WhatsApp co-founder Jan Koum and PayPal co-founder Max Levchin were refugees from Ukraine. The late Andy Grove, who helped start and was later CEO of Intel, fled from communist Hungary. So, too, did hedge-fund manager and philanthropist George Soros; Thomas Peterffy, the founder of Interactive Brokers Group; and Steven Udvar-Hazy, the founder of Air Lease Corp.

People originating from the seven countries on Trump’s blacklist already have contributed a lot to America. eBay was founded by an Iranian-American, Pierre Omidyar. Its market capitalization of $36.1 billion dwarfs the value of Trump’s unlisted business holdings, while Omidyar’s self-made $8.2 billion fortune is more than twice as big as Trump’s partly inherited one. Oracle Corp., a software giant worth $162.2 billion, was co-founded by the late Bob Miner, who was also Iranian-American. While the communities from the other countries are much smaller and generally more recent, one notable Somali-American is author and activist Ayaan Hirsi Ali, an outspoken critic of both Islamic extremism and Trump’s anti-Muslim policies.

Read my piece for Foreign Policy

Keep Europe’s Doors Open

The horrific Paris attacks are shocking and deeply saddening. And when people’s security is threatened, governments sometimes need to curtail our freedom. But the measures taken ought to be targeted, proportionate and effective. Reimposing border controls (which would not have prevented the Paris attacks) and turning away refugees, many of whom are fleeing Islamic State violence, are none of those things. That is what I argue in my latest column for Foreign Policy.