The storm over Greenland may have abated for now, but Europe’s relations with Donald Trump remain grim.
Europeans need to face facts: they cannot rely on the mercurial US president to protect them from Russia; indeed, he too poses a threat.
Now, then, is the time to accelerate plans to reduce Europe’s military, economic and technological dependence on Trump’s America and to build new partnerships with like-minded powers.
Read my latest Brussels Times column.
When in 2019 Donald Trump first suggested that the US acquire Greenland, Europeans dismissed the idea as a bad joke. But they’re not laughing now.
My latest column for Brussels Times explains why Trump wants Greenland, how he might gain control of it, and what that would mean – not just for Greenland and Denmark, but also for Ukraine and the rest of Europe.
It concludes that in a world governed by force, Europe needs to be able to defend itself – not by 2035, but now.
Later this month, NATO is set to agree targets for higher defence spending, by an as-yet-unconfirmed future date.
But Europe needs to rearm massively, right now. The threat from Putin is imminent, as is the risk that Trump abandons Europe, or betrays it by siding with Putin.
While this will eventually require tax rises and/or spending cuts, the best way to fund such a big emergency boost to defence spending is by borrowing more for a few years, preferably collectively. This could involve a coalition of willing governments, both EU and non-EU.
Done right, this could also help streamline military procurement, better integrate Europe’s fighting forces and even provide a much-needed lift to Europe’s struggling economies.
My latest Substack essay explains how best to do this.
My latest Substack essay analyses Trump’s trade deals with the UK and China, and provides pointers for the EU, Japan and others.
Read my latest Substack essay
As Trump’s destructive chaos leads global investors to desperately search for safe alternatives to US Treasury bonds, the EU has been given an unprecedented opportunity.
In addition to satisfying investor demand, a large issuance of common EU bonds would strengthen Europe’s economy, security, and policymaking autonomy.
Read my latest column for Project Syndicate
Read my latest Substack essay
Trump is destroying the post-1945 economic and geopolitical order that the US created and led. What comes next?
Read my new Substack essay
I debated this on Al Jazeera English’s Inside Story
Watch the video
“There’s a new sheriff in town,” declared US Vice President J.D. Vance at this year’s Munich Security Conference. With his boss, “Sheriff” Donald Trump, openly disparaging America’s longstanding security commitments and actively undermining European security, the United States can no longer be trusted, and it is up to Europe’s leaders to bolster the continent’s defense capacity – and fast.
Read this Project Syndicate Big Picture, with a contribution from me.
How can European countries possibly afford to increase military spending at a time when their economies are weak, public finances are stretched, and many voters are loath to accept cuts to other government spending? In fact, there is no shortage of options – and, with the United States going its own way, no room for further delay.
Read my latest column for Project Syndicate
I was interviewed by Adrian Finighan on Al Jazeera’s Counting the Cost about the threat that Trump could spark a global trade war. I think he will, and that it will push countries to seek other trade partners, not least China.
Watch the interview (starts 6 minutes in).
Shell-shocked Europeans will be tempted to hunker down and hope that Donald Trump does not make good on his most extreme threats, like sweeping import tariffs and quitting NATO. But this would be a catastrophic mistake; Europeans must swallow their pride and try to capitalise on Trump’s craving for admiration.
Read my latest column for Project Syndicate
Far-right populism is not dead, but it can be defeated.
Are Europeans up to the task?
Read my latest for Project Syndicate
Beware enemies hiding in plain sight. The Audi in the driveway and that BMW creeping around the corner are threats to national security. These days, it’s not the reds under the bed Americans need to worry about—it’s the Mercs on the lurk.
Read my latest column for Foreign Policy on Trump’s threatened trade war against European cars.
Watch my interview on Al Jazeera English’s Inside Story
I was interviewed about the G7 and trade on Al Jazeera English on 9 June.
I discussed Donald Trump’s trade war with China on Al Jazeera English’s Inside Story on 16 June.
Read my latest briefing for OPEN. Join our mailing list to stay updated!
Refugees are a tiny proportion of the U.S. population — some 3.3 million have been admitted since 1975 — but they have had an outsized impact. Google co-founder Sergey Brin was a child refugee from the Soviet Union; Google’s parent company, Alphabet, is now America’s second-most valuable firm, with a market capitalization of $553 billion. WhatsApp co-founder Jan Koum and PayPal co-founder Max Levchin were refugees from Ukraine. The late Andy Grove, who helped start and was later CEO of Intel, fled from communist Hungary. So, too, did hedge-fund manager and philanthropist George Soros; Thomas Peterffy, the founder of Interactive Brokers Group; and Steven Udvar-Hazy, the founder of Air Lease Corp.
People originating from the seven countries on Trump’s blacklist already have contributed a lot to America. eBay was founded by an Iranian-American, Pierre Omidyar. Its market capitalization of $36.1 billion dwarfs the value of Trump’s unlisted business holdings, while Omidyar’s self-made $8.2 billion fortune is more than twice as big as Trump’s partly inherited one. Oracle Corp., a software giant worth $162.2 billion, was co-founded by the late Bob Miner, who was also Iranian-American. While the communities from the other countries are much smaller and generally more recent, one notable Somali-American is author and activist Ayaan Hirsi Ali, an outspoken critic of both Islamic extremism and Trump’s anti-Muslim policies.
Read my piece for Foreign Policy