Against a backdrop of acute uncertainty, weak growth, subdued wages, and elevated market interest rates, monetary tightening is warranted only when there is convincing evidence that higher inflation is becoming entrenched. No such evidence has yet materialized in Europe.
Read my latest column for Project Syndicate
As Trump’s destructive chaos leads global investors to desperately search for safe alternatives to US Treasury bonds, the EU has been given an unprecedented opportunity.
In addition to satisfying investor demand, a large issuance of common EU bonds would strengthen Europe’s economy, security, and policymaking autonomy.
Read my latest column for Project Syndicate
“There’s a new sheriff in town,” declared US Vice President J.D. Vance at this year’s Munich Security Conference. With his boss, “Sheriff” Donald Trump, openly disparaging America’s longstanding security commitments and actively undermining European security, the United States can no longer be trusted, and it is up to Europe’s leaders to bolster the continent’s defense capacity – and fast.
Read this Project Syndicate Big Picture, with a contribution from me.
How can European countries possibly afford to increase military spending at a time when their economies are weak, public finances are stretched, and many voters are loath to accept cuts to other government spending? In fact, there is no shortage of options – and, with the United States going its own way, no room for further delay.
Read my latest column for Project Syndicate
Shell-shocked Europeans will be tempted to hunker down and hope that Donald Trump does not make good on his most extreme threats, like sweeping import tariffs and quitting NATO. But this would be a catastrophic mistake; Europeans must swallow their pride and try to capitalise on Trump’s craving for admiration.
Read my latest column for Project Syndicate
The growing likelihood of an unhinged Donald Trump returning to power and acting on his threats to withdraw the United States from NATO should serve as a wake-up call for Europe. Instead of hoping for the best, European countries must boost their military spending and establish a robust defence union
Read my latest column for Project Syndicate
Boris Johnson won the December 2019 UK general election on the promise that he had an “oven-ready deal” to “get Brexit done.” But while the UK did leave the EU in January 2020, Johnson’s deal included a deeply contentious protocol governing the special trade status of Northern Ireland. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s successful negotiation of an amended deal with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is thus a welcome development – one that could mark a turning point in UK-EU relations.
Read my latest piece for Project Syndicate.
Far-right populism is not dead, but it can be defeated.
Are Europeans up to the task?
Read my latest for Project Syndicate
It’s economically significant and politically beneficial, but it leaves the eurozone’s deeper problems unresolved.
Read my latest for Project Syndicate
Eurozone finance ministers have finally agreed a package of measures to respond to the coronavirus crisis. But in the face of an unprecedented medical and economic emergency, it is inadequate. What the eurozone needs is a large, temporary coronavirus Marshall Plan, funded by common debt that the ECB would buy and hold for the foreseeable future.
Read my latest for Project Syndicate.
British democracy was once widely seen as a model for others to follow. But it has now sunk into its deepest crisis in living memory.
At stake is not only whether the UK crashes out of the EU without an exit deal, but also how far a country once famed for stability and moderation descends into political civil war.
Read my latest column for Project Syndicate
My latest for Project Syndicate
The European Union is increasingly caught between the United States and China. Until it finds a common strategic purpose, the bloc will struggle to advance its interests and is increasingly likely to fall victim to great-power plays.
Read my latest column for Project Syndicate.
Quoted in the FT
Quoted in Belgium’s L’Echo
Quoted by Voice of America
Quoted in the Daily Mail
Angela Merkel’s announcement of her political departure has prompted a predictable response from many quarters: that she was the “steady hand” that held Europe together, and that her “strong and stabilising leadership” will be sorely missed.
Nonsense. Merkel’s 13 years in office have involved domestic drift and European decay. She has complacently coasted along, failing to address Germany’s mounting economic and security challenges, and allowing Europe’s many crises to fester. Her approach would be tolerable for a small country in quiet times; it is catastrophic for Europe’s dominant power in an era of upheaval, as I explain in Project Syndicate.
Mehreen Khan kindly mentioned the piece in the FT’s Brussels briefing
A big reason why Western politics is in such disarray is voters’ pessimism about the future. 60% of Westerners believe today’s children will be “worse off financially than their parents”. Europeans are particularly gloomy. To paraphrase Hobbes, they expect youngsters’ lives to be solitary, poor, nasty, brutish – and long.
When people doubt that progress is possible, they tend to fear change of any kind. Rather than focusing on opportunities, they see threats everywhere and hold on tighter to what they have. Distributional cleavages come to the fore – toxically so when overlaid with identity clashes.
Western politics can become rosier again, but only if politicians first address the root causes of the gloom. My latest column for Project Syndicate explains what needs to be done.
My latest column for Project Syndicate.
I was interviewed by Project Syndicate for their podcast series
My wrap-up piece for Project Syndicate
Far-right populists pose a grave threat to Europe’s open liberal societies. Here’s how to defeat them. My column for Project Syndicate
Theresa May has finally set out her Brexit negotiating objectives. While she belatedly recognised that curtailing free movement requires leaving the single market, she wasn’t honest about the implications of leaving the customs union and her two-year timetable for striking an exit and a trade deal is unrealistic. The chances of Britain leaving without a deal, let alone a “phased implementation” of it, have risen. Businesses should prepare for a very hard, chaotic, cliff-edge Brexit. My column for Project Syndicate